1. Emma Stone (La La Land)
Stone has all the right ingredients working in her favor: She's a previous nominee, a young ingenue, a box office success, impossibly charming, and starring in this year's Best Picture frontrunner. Though Best Actress was a competitive field, she probably can't lose.
2. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Third nomination (1 win).
Losing the Golden Globe (to Isabelle Huppert) was a sign of weakness in her campaign for a second Best Actress Oscar, and the film didn't catch on in any of the other major categories, but she's still playing a well known historical figure, which is often catnip to voters.
3. Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Despite the Golden Globe win and some very passionate supporters, both Elle and Huppert's performance are divisive (and subtitled) - hurdles to overcome when you hope to win a plurality vote. She is, however, an internationally well-respected veteran on her first Oscar nomination, so let's call her the dark horse in this category.
4. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Twentieth nomination (3 wins).
That well-publicized Golden Globes speech secured her this record-extending nomination, though unless members are feeling extra political in selecting Meryl, it will undoubtedly be her seventeenth loss.
5. Ruth Negga (Loving)
Negga squeezed out some heavy competition (including Amy Adams and Annette Bening) to land a place in this lineup, but the well-deserved nomination will be her reward this year.