Rockwell

1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

        No previous nominations.

        In a category filled with lovable character actors who have gone unrewarded by Oscar, Rockwell seems to have charmed his way to the top. After taking the Globe, SAG, and Critics' Choice Award, he's hoping to add an Oscar to his mantle.

Dafoe

2. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

        Two previous nominations.

        While Dafoe began the season as the clear frontrunner (at least among the regional critics groups who preferred his work in this category to all others), he may have to be content with just the nomination, which would be his third in this category after Platoon and Shadow of the Vampire.

Jenkins

3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

        One previous nomination.

        Another respected character actor (sensing a pattern?), Jenkins was last nominated for Best Actor for The Visitor.

Harrelson

4. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

        Two previous nominations.

        This category thinned early on in the season in an odd way (that'll happen when Dafoe and Rockwell are hogging all the wins between themselves), but as Three Billboards continued to rise, so did Woody. Thus, he's expected to place here.

Stuhlbarg

5. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)

        No previous nominations.

        Yet another beloved veteran (who this year also appeared in likely nominees The Shape of Water and The Post), Stuhlbarg may split votes with costar Armie Hammer, but I still have a hunch his incredibly moving final scene secures him enough #1 votes to find himself among the nominated five.


6. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
7. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)