2015 Golden Globe Awards Predictions


Fill your ice cube trays and get out your cheese boards; the 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards are here! Airing Sunday on NBC at 8pm ET and handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), the Globes mix movie stars, TV actors, and a healthy dose of drunkenness in what usually amounts to the year's most enjoyable night of live television. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler (hooray!) return as hosts for the third (and likely final) time, and George Clooney will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award from Julianna Margulies (ER reunion!) and Don Cheadle.

For the more studious ones in our readership (you're show-offs, but we love you), there's still time to listen to our latest podcast, featuring a detailed analysis of the film categories. Then shake up a cocktail and enjoy the main event, and follow along with us all evening on Twitter @CineMunch. Matt's final predictions in all fields are after the jump.


Best Picture - Drama
"The Imitation Game"
√ "Selma"
"The Theory of Everything"

   The Globes are the most "fun" awards show of the year not only because of all the drunk celebrities, but also because they can be unpredictable and refreshing in their choices. While Boyhood is certainly the safe choice here, it is by no means a lock. A win for The Imitation Game would not surprise me in the least (similar to Atonement or Babel winning in their respective years). Despite missing out on some crucial nominations over the past month (namely with SAG, PGA, and BAFTA), I have a hunch (/hope) that Selma asserts some power with an upset here.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical
√ "Birdman"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"Into the Woods"
"St. Vincent"

   The Globes love musicals - they'll nominate pretty much all of them, and gave Best Picture to Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, and Les Misérables in recent years - so it's possible Into the Woods takes this, but expect Birdman to easily win here.

Best Director
Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Ava Duvernay, "Selma"
David Fincher, "Gone Girl"
√ Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"

   An amazing lineup with several possible outcomes. Linklater is the likely victor, though I have a feeling Iñárritu narrowly takes this for nominations leader Birdman.

Best Actress in a Drama
Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
√ Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

   Moore begins her cakewalk to the Oscar with this win. Right? 

Best Actor in a Drama
Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
David Oyelowo, "Selma"
√ Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

   Redmayne seems to be the one who will challenge Michael Keaton for the Oscar, so it would make sense for him to kickstart some momentum with a win here, though this is a very competitive field. Conceivably any of the five could win.

Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
√ Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Bill Murray, "St. Vincent"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Inherent Vice"
Christoph Waltz, "Big Eyes"

   With the exception of Waltz (who is a good actor, but truly horrendous in Big Eyes), this is a great batch of performances. Fiennes is a dark horse, but it's almost a guaranteed victory for Keaton.

Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical
Amy Adams, "Big Eyes"
√ Emily Blunt, "Into the Woods"
Helen Mirren, "The Hundred-Foot Journey"
Julianne Moore, "Map to the Stars"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Annie"

   Moore could walk away with two Globe wins (similar to Kate Winslet's coronation in 2009), though one can likely whittle this down to Adams vs. Blunt. Amy won last year in this category for American Hustle and is a more likely auto-pilot Oscar nominee than Blunt, but Globes voters have always been smitten with Blunt, and I suspect she takes this. 

Best Supporting Actress
√ Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Jessica Chastain, "A Most Violent Year"
Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
Emma Stone, "Birdman"
Meryl Streep, "Into the Woods"

   The HFPA love Streep probably more than AMPAS does (awarding her 8 statues from 29 nominations), but Arquette might just prove to be unstoppable this season. 

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, "The Judge"
Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
Edward Norton, "Birdman"
Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
√ J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

   Similar to Arquette, I think Simmons will steamroll through all the way to Oscar without losing a battle. However, if there's ever an awards show he might lose this year, it's this one - I'd say Edward Norton is the spoiler.

Best Screenplay
√ Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Gillian Flynn, "Gone Girl"
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo, "Birdman"
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Graham Moore, "The Imitation Game"

   The Grand Budapest Hotel seems like the film most likely to be awarded on the merits of its script alone (similar to Her last year). The other original scripts in this field are just as likely (Birdman and Boyhood) though I can't decide which would have the edge. Voters might also want to award Gone Girl and its author here.

Best Foreign Language Film
"Force Majeure Turist," Sweden
"Gett: The Trial of Viviane Ansalem Gett," Israel
√ "Ida," Poland/Denmark
"Leviathan," Russia
"Tangerines Mandariinid," Estonia

Best Animated Feature
"Big Hero 6"
"The Book of Life"
"The Boxtrolls"
"How to Train Your Dragon 2"
√ "The Lego Movie"

Best Original Song
"Big Eyes" from "Big Eyes" music and lyrics by Lana Del Rey
√ "Glory" from "Selma," Music and lyrics by John Legend and Common
"Mercy Is" from "Noah," Music and lyrics by Patti Smith and Lenny Kaye
"Opportunity" from "Annie," Music and lyrics by Greg Kurstin, Sia Furler, Will Gluck
"Yellow Flicker Beat" from "The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1," Music and lyrics by Lorde

Best Score
"The Imitation Game"
"The Theory of Everything"
"Gone Girl"
√ "Birdman"

   Despite being deemed ineligible by the Academy (or maybe because of that fact), I think the percussive soundtrack for Birdman wins here over more traditional scores.


Best TV Comedy or Musical
"Jane the Virgin"
√ "Orange Is the New Black"
"Silicon Valley"

   The Globes can occasionally seem easy to predict on the TV side because they go with the fresh, new thing almost every time. I think Orange is the New Black would've easily won here last year had it not been submitted as a Drama (where it failed to be nominated), but they'll make up for it with a win this year - though it has strong competition in critical favorite Transparent. Either way, a show from a streaming service (Netflix of Amazon) will likely win a Best Series award for the first time this evening. 

Best TV Drama
"The Affair"
"Downton Abbey"
"Game of Thrones"
"The Good Wife"
√ "House of Cards"

   The Affair has the "pretty young thing" working in its favor, and The Good Wife has had a strong resurgence, but I foresee House of Cards matching Orange is the New Black's win in Comedy Series giving Netflix both trophies. 

Best Actress in a TV Drama
Claire Danes, "Homeland"
√ Viola Davis, "How to Get Away with Murder"
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Ruth Wilson, "The Affair"
Robin Wright, "House of Cards"

   Give Viola Davis all the awards. Just put her on a better TV show. Or give her a movie. Please.

Best Actor in a TV Drama
√ Clive Owen, "The Knick"
Liev Schreiber, "Ray Donovan"
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"
James Spader, "The Blacklist"
Dominic West, "The Affair"

   Spacey has somehow never won a Globe, though I think that unlucky streak will continue with a loss to Owen here. Look out for Dominic West though.

Best Actress in a TV Comedy
Lena Dunham, "Girls"
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
√ Gena Rodriguez, "Jane the Virgin"
Taylor Schilling, "Orange Is the New Black"

   Amy Poehler again. Oh wait... It could be Schilling, though some of the sheen of her show has worn off, and Louis-Dreyfus (despite three consecutive Emmys) has yet to win a Globe for her work on Veep, but watch newcomer Rodriguez take the first ever major prize for The CW.

Best Actor in a TV Comedy
Louis CK, "Louie"
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Ricky Gervais, "Derek"
William H. Macy, "Shameless"
√ Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"

   Even if the show falls short in the series category, Tambor should handily win this. As well he should.

Best Miniseries or TV Movie
√ "Fargo"
"The Missing"
"The Normal Heart"
"Olive Kitteridge"
"True Detective"

   The "lesser" TV category awards are often when one can use the restroom or refill their beverage, though there's a lot of drama in this year's races for a lot of high profile shows and performers. This particular category is one of the most competitive of the night. The Normal Heart has the prestige and 'importance' factor, Olive Kitteridge is freshest in voter's minds, and True Detective was a huge zeitgeist-y hit featuring movie stars. Though I'm sticking with the one I most want to win, Fargo. 

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "The Honorable Woman"
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Freak Show"
√ Frances McDormand, "Olive Kitteridge"
Frances O'Connor, "The Missing"
Allison Tolman, "Fargo"

   Lange hasn't won since the first season of AHS, and Gyllenhaal is a potential spoiler, though I suspect this will come down to the two Fargo ladies: Tolman vs. McDormand (who won the Oscar for the film version of Fargo, though lost the Globe to Madonna that year). 

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Martin Freeman, "Fargo"
Woody Harrelson, "True Detective"
√ Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Normal Heart"
Billy Bob Thornton, "Fargo"

   Any of these men could win, though McConaughey is the frontrunner. I'm rooting for Freeman to play spoiler, though I think Ruffalo is the most obvious alternative.

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie
√ Uzo Aduba, "Orange Is the New Black"
Kathy Bates, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Joanne Froggatt, "Downton Abbey"
Allison Janney, "Mom"
Michelle Monaghan, "True Detective"

   Typically the hardest categories to predict, the catch-all TV supporting categories can be really exciting (Jacqueline Bisset's bizarre speech last year, Chris Colfer). I think Aduba will add to the Emmy she won in the fall, but Janney or Bates could also add to the Emmys they won in the fall.

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie
√ Matt Bomer, "The Normal Heart"
Alan Cumming, "The Good Wife"
Colin Hanks, "Fargo"
Bill Murray, "Olive Kitteridge"
Jon Voight, "Ray Donovan"

   Bill Murray probably has the edge (and who can begrudge giving Bill Murray an award?), but I predict Bomer takes this.