2015 Emmy Awards Predictions


The "best" in television will be honored at the 67th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards this Sunday, September 20th at 8pm ET on FOX. I use quotes around "best," b/c it's the Emmys and they've proven to have some questionable judgment in the past. We talked predictions and preferences in our most recent podcast, but you'll find my full list of who I think will win below (in the probable order they'll be announced). Follow along with us on Twitter @CineMunch throughout the evening for more of our musings and reactions.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 
Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory" 
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family" 
Anna Chlumsky, "Veep"
Gaby Hoffmann, "Transparent"
√ Allison Janney, "Mom" 
Jane Krakowski, "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Kate McKinnon, "Saturday Night Live" 
Niecy Nash, "Getting On"

     Janney won last year and is an Emmy darling, so it's safe to say she'll repeat even if the show she's on isn't particularly well-loved. Anna Chlumsky, who has a fantastic episode submitted to voters for their consideration, is right on her heels though.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series 
"Episodes" -- "Episode 409" (David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik) 
"The Last Man on Earth" -- "Alive in Tucson (Pilot)" (Will Forte)
"Louie" -- "Bobby's House" (Louis C.K.)
"Silicon Valley" -- "Two Days of the Condor" (Alec Berg)
√ "Transparent" -- "Pilot" (Jill Soloway)
"Veep" -- "Election Night" (Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche and Armando Iannucci)

     Likely down to "Transparent" vs. "Veep" for both the writing and directing in a comedy series awards, though "The Last Man on Earth" is a strong contender in each category.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 
Andre Braugher, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" 
Tituss Burgess, "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
√ Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Adam Driver, "Girls"  
Tony Hale, "Veep"
Keegan-Michael Key, "Key & Peele"

     Of the past five years, I've predicted Burrell to win this award three times, and he's won twice...though never in a year when I predicted him. So, I'll stick with the boring choice even if the odds are my predicting him to win means he'll lose - possibly to previous winner Tony Hale or newcomer Tituss Burgess.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series 
√ "The Last Man on Earth" -- "Alive in Tucson (Pilot)" (Phil Lord and Christopher Miller)
"Louie" -- "Sleepover" (Louis C.K.)
"Silicon Valley" -- "Sand Hill Shuffle" (Mike Judge)
"Transparent" -- "Best New Girl" (Jill Soloway)
"Veep" -- "Testimony" (Armando Iannucci)

     "Veep" is the frontrunner with "Transparent" just behind, but I'll branch out and say Lord & Miller (directors of The Lego Movie and 22 Jump Street, among others) take this by a hair.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 
Anthony Anderson, "black-ish"
Louis C.K., "Louie" 
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Will Forte, "The Last Man on Earth"
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes" 
William H. Macy, "Shameless" 
√ Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"

     This seems like a lock (and a very, very deserving one at that), but the Emmys have been known to stray from the obvious choice.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" 
Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"
√ Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep" 
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" 
Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer"
Lily Tomlin, "Grace & Frankie"

     A very strong category, and my favorite of the night. I'll be happy with a win for just about any of these talented women, but, in the end, I think Louis-Dreyfus will make it 4-in-a-row. Sentimental voters may rally behind the still Emmy-less Amy Poehler in her final season or want to welcome back Lily Tomlin, but the current buzz seems to have coalesced behind Trainwreck star Amy Schumer. All that said, my vote would absolutely be for the incredible Lisa Kudrow.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program 
√ "The Amazing Race" (CBS) 
"Dancing with the Stars" (ABC) 
"Project Runway" (Lifetime) 
"So You Think You Can Dance" (FOX) 
"Top Chef" (Bravo) 
"The Voice" (NBC)

     Sigh. I guess there's no reason to think anything else will ever win this category (despite one win each for "Top Chef" and "The Voice", "The Amazing Race" has won this award every single year).

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie or a Dramatic Special 
"American Crime" -- "Episode One" (John Ridley) 
"Bessie" -- (Dee Rees, Christopher Cleveland, Bettina Gilois, and Horton Foote) 
"Hello Ladies: The Movie" (Stephen Merchant, Gene Stupnitsky, and Lee Eisenberg) 
√ "Olive Kitteridge" (Jane Anderson) 
"The Honorable Woman" (Hugo Blick) 
"Wolf Hall" -- (Peter Straughan)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie 
Angela Basset, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Kathy Bates, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Zoe Kazan, "Olive Kitteridge"
Regina King, "American Crime"
Mo'Nique, "Bessie"
√ Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

     I think Paulson finally takes this, but she's got strong competition in Oscar winner Mo'Nique. I'd say Zoe Kazan is the dark horse here.

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries, Movie or a Dramatic Special
"American Horror Story: Freak Show" -- "Monsters Among Us" (Ryan Murphy) 
"Bessie" (Dee Rees) 
"Houdini" (Uli Edel) 
√ "Olive Kitteridge" (Lisa Cholodenko) 
"The Honorable Woman" (Hugo Blick) 
"The Missing" (Tom Shankland)
"Wolf Hall" (Peter Kosminsky)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie 
Richard Cabral, "American Crime"
√ Damian Lewis, "Wolf Hall"
Bill Murray, "Olive Kitteridge"
Denis O'Hare, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Micahel Kenneth Williams, "Bessie"
Finn Wittrock, "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

      Bill Murray seems to be the favorite, though, as great as he is, he's barely in "Olive Kitteridge." I can't decide which of the other gents to go with, so I'll opt for previous winner Lewis over surprise nominee Cabral.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "The Honorable Woman" 
Felicity Huffman, "American Crime" 
Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Freak Show" 
Queen Latifah, "Bessie"
√ Frances McDormand, "Olive Kitteridge"
Emma Thompson, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Live from Lincoln Center)" 

     A fantastic lineup of actresses to be sure, though I can't see how McDormand loses. Well, it's the Emmys, so I can easily see how she could lose, but I really hope she doesn't.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie 
Adrien Brody, "Houdini"
Ricky Gervais, "Derek Special"
Timothy Hutton, "American Crime"
Richard Jenkins, "Olive Kitteridge"
David Oyelowo, "Nightengale"
√ Mark Rylance, "Wolf Hall"

     Oyelowo is the probable winner, but I'm torn between guessing a Richard Jenkins or Mark Rylance upset. I'll go with Rylance, as Jenkins' work in "Olive Kitteridge" might be too subtle.

Outstanding Limited Series 
"American Crime" (ABC) 
"American Horror Story: Freak Show" (FX) 
"The Honorable Woman" (SundanceTV) 
√ "Olive Kitteridge" (HBO) 
"Wolf Hall" (PBS)

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
√ "The Colbert Report" 
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" 
"Inside Amy Schumer"
"Key & Peele" 
"Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series 
"The Colbert Report" (James Hoskinson) 
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" (Chuck O'Neil) 
√ "Inside Amy Schumer" (Amy Schumer and Ryan McFaul) 
"Late Show with David Letterman" (Jerry Foley) 
"The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" (Dave Diomedi)

     I suspect Colbert will feel the love for the final year of "The Colbert Report", but Schumer might have the edge in directing for the 12 Angry Men spoof episode.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
"Drunk History" (Comedy Central)
√ "Inside Amy Schumer" (Comedy Central)
"Key & Peele" (Comedy Central)
"Portlandia" (IFC)
"Saturday Night Live" (NBC)

     This is the first year the Emmys have split Variety Series into two separate categories (Sketch and Talk), so one might think "SNL" would take the inaugural Variety Sketch trophy (it is the program with the most Emmy wins in history after all), but "Inside Amy Schumer" is the likely winner here.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series 
√ "The Colbert Report" (Comedy Central) 
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central) 
"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" (ABC) 
"Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" (HBO)
"Late Show with David Letterman" (CBS)
"The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" (NBC) 

     This is voters' last chance to award "The Colbert Report" or "Late Show with David Letterman", so I expect they will. "Daily Show" with Jon Stewart at the helm will have one final chance next year, so I suspect it'll sit this one out.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series 
"The Americans" -- "Do Mail Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?" (Joshua Brand) 
"Better Call Saul" -- "Five-O" (Gordon Smith) 
"Game of Thrones" -- "Mother's Mercy" (David Benioff and D.B. Weiss) 
"Mad Men" -- "Lost Horizon" (Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner) 
√ "Mad Men" -- "Person to Person" (Matthew Weiner)

     Rather shockingly, "Mad Men" hasn't won a single Emmy since it picked up its record-tying fourth award for Drama Series in 2011. Even if it misses out in the top race this year, I think it'll take this award for its series finale.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Uzo Aduba, "Orange is the New Black"
Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife" 
Emilia Clarke, "Game of Thrones"
Joanne Froggatt, "Downton Abbey"
√ Lena Headey, "Game of Thrones" 
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"

     Shame if Headey doesn't win this (see what I did there? - it not, you probably don't watch GoT), but it could also go to Aduba (who won last year in Guest Actress in a Comedy for the same role), Baranski, or Hendricks. 

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series 
"Boardwalk Empire" -- "Eldorado" (Tim Van Patten) 
"Game Of Thrones" -- "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken" (Jeremy Podeswa) 
"Game of Thrones" -- "Mother's Mercy" (David Nutter) 
"Homeland" -- "From A to B and Back Again" (Lesli Linka Glatter)
√ "The Knick" -- "Methods and Madness" (Steven Soderbergh)

     The Emmys love awarding pilot episodes and big name directors (David Fincher and Martin Scorsese have been winners in this category recently), so I predict Soderbergh wins over the Game of Thrones finale ("Mother's Mercy") and previous winner Van Patten.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
√ Jonathan Banks, "Better Call Saul"
Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey"
Alan Cumming, "The Good Wife" 
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones" 
Michael Kelly, "House of Cards"
Ben Mendelsohn, "Bloodline"

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Kyle Chandler, "Bloodline"
Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom" 
√ Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" 
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul"
Liev Schreiber, "Ray Donovan"
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"

     Infamously, "Mad Men" has yet to win ANY Emmys for any of its actors, so eighth time is the charm for winless Jon Hamm? It's now or never...

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
Claire Danes, "Homeland" 
√ Viola Davis, "How to Get Away With Murder"
Taraji P. Henson, "Empire"
Tatiana Maslany, "Orphan Black"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Robin Wright, "House of Cards"

     A win by Davis or Henson would be historic (no actress of color has ever won this award), but this is a very, very competitive field. 

Outstanding Comedy Series 
"Louie" (FX) 
√ "Modern Family" (ABC)
"Parks and Recreation" (NBC)
"Silicon Valley" (HBO) 
"Transparent" (Amazon)
"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" (Netflix)
"Veep" (HBO)

     "Veep" is considered the frontrunner (and would be a fantastic choice) with freshman series "Transparent" right in the mix, but I'm reluctantly sticking with the same old, same old and predicting "Modern Family" wins for a record sixth time. It is, after all, by far the most watched (and most traditional) of these seven programs.

Outstanding Drama Series 
"Better Call Saul" (AMC) 
"Downton Abbey" (PBS) 
"Game of Thrones" (HBO) 
"Homeland" (Showtime)
"House of Cards" (Netflix) 
√ "Mad Men" (AMC) 
"Orange is the New Black" (Netflix)

     "Game of Thrones" is in the lead according to most in the know, but I think a dose of genre-bias and sentimentality will push "Mad Men" to one final victory here (which would be a record-breaking fifth win in this category).