Final 2018 Oscar Nominations Predictions


Pop the champagne, it’s the most wonderful time of the year: Oscar nominations time!!

The 91st Annual Academy Awards nominations will be announced by Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross on Tuesday morning in two segments - one at 8:20am ET and the other at the precise time of 8:30:30am ET (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).

2018 was a pretty fantastic year for film (our personal lists of the year’s best will drop mid-February), though, as usual, the Oscars might not entirely reflect the best 2018 had to offer. But you take the good with the bad, so while I’m bracing for no less than three actively not great films to crack the Best Picture lineup (in the spirit of brief positivity I shan’t name them here), there will be plenty to celebrate among the crop of this year’s honorees.

Read on for my final nominations predictions!


A Star is Born
Green Book
The Favourite
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternates: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place

As has been the case since 2011, there can be as few as five Best Picture nominees or as many as ten (depending on how the votes pan out). Since the change, we've only ever had a lineup consisting of eight or nine films, and I’m most confident in the eight listed above, so I left it at that.


Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)


Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

Alternates: John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

The top four are secure, and while that fifth slot seems poised to go to Washington (Denzel’s son!) in a film likely to receive other top nominations, I’m sticking with critical favorite Ethan Hawke.


Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

Alternates: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Toni Collette (Hereditary)

Similar to Best Actor, the top four seem locked - though McCarthy could be an unwelcome snub come morning. A deep field and competitive year signal a battle for that last slot, with Viola Davis and Nicole Kidman also lurking around as possibilities. Roma’s overall strength might boost Aparicio, and I’d love to see Collette sneak in, though I think Blunt nabs her first Oscar nom for a role that won Julie Andrews her Oscar in this category.


Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Alternates: Sam Rockwell (Vice), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

Again, the top four seem probable - though Sam Elliott missed some key precursor nominations. Last year’s breakout Chalamet has stuck around all season for a film that didn’t generate much conversation, but he still seems poised to earn a second nomination over a deserving Michael B. Jordan and last year’s winner Rockwell.


Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Claire Foy (First Man)

Alternates: Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

This category settled on these five early on, and though Blunt (in an unquestionably leading role) and Robbie have picked up some notable mentions along the way, I think those five are pretty set. Emily Blunt stands a real chance at earning an overdue first Oscar nomination - though she’s right on the bubble in both lead and supporting, so could wind up with two, one, or zero nominations…


The Favourite
Green Book
Eighth Grade

Alternates: First Reformed, A Quiet Place, Cold War


If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace

Alternate: Black Panther, The Death of Stalin, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians

All other final predictions can be found on the separate category field pages linked below.

(Foreign Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Short Films)

(Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Make Up & Hairstyling, Visual Effects)

(Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)