Final 2021-2022 Oscar Nominations Predictions
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And just like that…the day has (finally) arrived - Oscar nominations morning!
The 94th Annual Academy Awards nominations will be revealed on Tuesday morning by Leslie Jordan & Tracee Ellis Ross beginning at 8:18am ET (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).
The nominations will honor the best in cinema from the past 10 months (January and February of 2021 were lumped into last year’s Oscar eligibility window to accommodate the many changing pandemic release dates). As COVID continues to disrupt life in and outside of Hollywood, assessing the tea leaves has become even more challenging for us Oscar prognosticators. Expect Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic Dune to lead the nominations, though it seems likely to boil down to Belfast vs The Power of the Dog for the Best Picture win (we’re very strongly in the Power of the Dog camp here at CineMunch).
Read on for my final nominations predictions!
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
CODA
King Richard
tick, tick…BOOM!
Being the Ricardos
Alternates: Drive My Car, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci
As was the case in 2010 and 2011, there are a set number of ten nomination slots for this year’s top race, which could prove interesting for those final few placements. The top eight listed above are set in stone and would be pretty shocking snubs were they to miss out. Any combination of the remaining six films I think are in play could make a strong case for spots 9 and 10, but I’ve opted to follow the Producers Guild’s nominated 10 and slate tick, tick…BOOM! and Being the Ricardos narrowly above this year’s international critical darling Drive My Car.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)
This five seems safe, though Hamaguchi feels like exactly the type of director this branch nominates and I would not be surprised to hear his name called out as a nominee here. Trouble is I just couldn’t decide whether it’s Branagh or Spielberg pushed aside in Hamaguchi’s favor, so I opted to play it safe and include both (which is, boringly, the same five directors nominated by the Directors Guild).
BEST ACTOR
Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Alternates: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Nicolas Cage (Pig)
BEST ACTRESS
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Alternates: Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Renata Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
Welcome to this year’s most excitingly unsettled category! The competition for the statue will be as fierce as last year’s chaos with no clear-cut frontrunner…but to win, you’ve obviously got to get the nomination first. Despite semi-surprising blanks with BAFTA, I’m confident Kidman and Colman are in. Gaga is rather shockingly the only lead actress to nab a nomination with every major precursor award this season, so she feels safe too. After that, it’s anybody’s guess. Chastain is overdue for a third nomination and Stewart has been touted as the one to beat all year (until she was snubbed by SAG and BAFTA), so I’ll select them as #4 and #5, but Haim and Cruz seem just as likely and are in films the Academy is more likely to respond to.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Alternates: Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Mike Faist (West Side Story)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Caitríona Balfe (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Alternates: Ann Dowd (Mass), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Judi Dench (Belfast)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
King Richard
Alternates: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, C’mon C’mon, Mass
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
CODA
The Lost Daughter
Dune
Drive My Car
Alternates: West Side Story, Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Drive My Car (Japan)
A Hero (Iran)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Flee (Denmark)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Alternates: Compartment No. 6 (Finland), Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), Great Freedom (Austria), Plaza Catedral (Panama)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Raya & the Last Dragon
Flee
Alternates: Sing 2, Belle
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
Procession
In the Same Breath
Alternates: Ascension, Attica, Writing With Fire, Faya Dayi, The First Wave, President
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
Alternates: West Side Story, The French Dispatch
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
Alternates: West Side Story, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Summer of Soul, Nightmare Alley
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
Cyrano
Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, No Time to Die
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Alternates: House of Gucci, The Power of the Dog, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
Alternates: Parallel Mothers, No Time to Die, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
”Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
”Be Alive” (King Richard)
”Down to Joy” (Belfast)
”Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” (Respect)
Alternates: “Just Look Up” (Don’t Look Up), “Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall), “So May We Start” (Annette), “Beyond the Shore” (CODA), “Right Where I Belong” (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road), “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Dune
Cruella
Coming 2 America
Alternates: The Suicide Squad, West Side Story, Cyrano, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
BEST SOUND
Dune
No Time to Die
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Alternates: Belfast, A Quiet Place Part 2, Last Night in Soho, tick, tick…BOOM!, The Matrix Resurrections
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang Chi & the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Godzilla vs Kong
Alternates: Spider-Man: No Way Home, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Free Guy, Eternals, Black Widow
The 94th Annual Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 27th, 2022.
