Tis the season! It’s finally Christmas Oscar nominations morning!

The 95th Annual Academy Awards nominations will be revealed on Tuesday morning January 24th by Riz Ahmed & Allison Williams beginning at 8:30am ET (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).

The nominations will honor the best in cinema from 2022. With the state of the film industry still reeling from COVID disruptions and an overall decrease in movie-going (not to mention studios reluctant to even release films in theaters these days), expect some familiar titles to crack the Best Picture lineup - as at least two sequels, but possibly as many as four, are likely to nab a mention. 2022’s box office behemoth’s Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water are pretty assured Best Picture nominees, so even if some smaller indies gain recognition, the public can’t complain that Oscar nominated films they never saw this year!

I’ve still got a lot to catch up on from last year to really assess my favorites from 2022, but I’ll definitely be happy to see the A24 indie-that-could Everything Everywhere All at Once among the nomination leaders when all is done and counted.

Read on for my final nominations predictions!

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
TÁR
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
Women Talking

Alternates: Babylon, Triangle of Sadness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, RRR, The Woman King, Aftersun, Living, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

For the second year running, we’re back to a set top ten for Oscar’s top award. You can bet on the first seven listed above - a mix of critical and commercial favorites that have scored the necessary precursor nominations and wins from the various industry guilds and critics groups to cement them firmly in this race. After that, last week’s BAFTA nominations showed incredible strength for the German WWI film All Quiet…, so it seems likely here (especially given that it is the mighty Netflix’s best shot at a nom in this category this year). Slots #9 and #10 are anyone’s guess, but I’m personally leaning pessimistic with The Whale (which might sneak in on the strength of Brendan Fraser’s Best Actor bid alone) and optimistic with Women Talking (a critical success that seems to have had its buzz completely deflate in the back half of this awards season). Triangle of Sadness, Babylon, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever appear just as likely though.

BEST DIRECTOR

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Todd Field (TÁR)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)

Alternates: Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)

I’m fairly confident in the top four - though us Oscar pundits were equally confident in Denis Villeneuve for Dune last year, or Ridley Scott for The Martian, or Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight or Inception… So if there’s to be a surprise snub here, it could be The Daniels or even that Spielberg guy, but I think they’re safe. The final slot is a toss up. The Director’s Guild chose Kosinski for Top Gun, though that seems not highbrow enough for this branch. The director of an international film has been nominated here several years running, which might help All Quiet’s Berger, but the film possibly peaked too late (plus, there are many foreign language auteurs in the mix this year who might pull support from each other). Though the directors cruelly snubbed Baz Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge! from 2001, perhaps they’ll make up for that mistake this year and give him a hat-tip for the equally flashy (but less successful, in my opinion) Elvis. In the end, I’ll guess that All Quiet’s impressive 14 nominations with the British Academy shows that Berger might just be the one to nab a spot over tough competition.

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Alternates: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)

In an unusually thin year for this category, Fraser, Butler, and Farrell will be duking it out for the win. Though Nighy’s film is lower profile, he’s a respected veteran and safely locked into that fourth slot. I’m banking on Mescal to slip into the final spot (an up-and-coming actor with a bright future in a respected indie similar to Ryan Gosling’s first nomination for Half Nelson from 2006), though my predicted fivesome is made up of all first-time nominees - something this category hasn’t seen since 1934!

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Alternates: Ana de Armas (Blonde), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

Blanchett and Yeoh are locked and represent one of this season’s fiercest battles for the statue. Cate Blanchett is hoping to join an elite group of actors with a third acting Oscar, while Yeoh is finally getting the major recognition she’s deserved for decades with a plum role that showcases her talents in one of the year’s most buzzed about films. Things grow murkier from there to round out this category, though I’d be surprised not to see Deadwyler included and have her third. Viola Davis seems primed to be one of those performers who earns a nomination everywhere leading up to Oscar (scoring with the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice, etc), but then misses at the last moment (especially as her film is not a major player in other categories), but I’ll play it safe and predict she makes it in. Michelle Williams could find herself shut out (as she was with SAG and BAFTA recently), especially given the more muted than expected response among some to The Fabelmans and confusion over which category her performance belongs (many think she’d be the frontrunner to win if she were to have been campaigned in Supporting Actress instead).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

Alternates: Ben Whishaw (Women Talking), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Alternates: Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Nina Hoss (TÁR), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness

Alternates: Aftersun, Babylon, Decision to Leave, Elvis

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women Talking
Living
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alternates: She Said, Top Gun: Maverick, White Noise, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Bones and All

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Close (Belgium)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
EO (Poland)

Alternates: Saint Omer (France), The Quiet Girl (Ireland), Bardo (Mexico), Return to Seoul (Cambodia), Corsage (Austria), Holy Spider (Denmark), Joyland (Pakistan)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Turning Red
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Wendell & Wild

Alternates: My Father’s Dragon, The Bad Guys, Inu-Oh

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny
Descendant

Alternates: Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home, Retrograde, The Territory, Hallelujah: The Leonard Cohen a Journey a Song, A House Made of Splinters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Empire of Light
The Batman

Alternates: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Fabelmans, Babylon, Bardo

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Fabelmans, TÁR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King

Alternates: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Living, Corsage, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Amsterdam, Don’t Worry Darling

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin

Alternates: All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Woman King

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
”Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
”Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
”Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio)
”Applause” (Tell It Like A Woman)

Alternates: “Stand Up” (Till), “Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing), “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise), “Good Afternoon” (Spirited)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Elvis
The Batman
The Whale
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: Babylon, Blonde, Crimes of the Future, Amsterdam, Emancipation

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman

Alternates: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, Moonage Daydream, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Thirteen Lives

Alternates: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Nope, Jurassic World Dominion

The 95th Annual Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 12th, 2023.