Final 96th Oscars Predictions
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last year’s acting winners
The time has come to close the curtain on the films of 2023 with this Sunday’s crowning of the 96th Annual Academy Awards! Honoring the very best cinematic achievements of last year, this year’s Oscars sees Jimmy Kimmel return for his fourth stint as Oscars host, and you can catch all the action on ABC beginning at 7pm ET.
Last year’s ceremony capped off an incredible and improbable awards season run for the multiverse genre-hybrid Everything Everywhere All at Once, as it won Picture, Director, and Screenplay, and became only the third film in Academy history to snag three of the four acting Oscars. Its seven total wins set a new record for Best Picture winners since the expansion of the Best Picture lineup in 2010, though that record is likely to be toppled by this year’s juggernaut: Oppenheimer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic is the total package and checks off just about every box an Oscar frontrunner can check: critics’ favorite, box office behemoth, pop cultural impact, acclaimed and overdue director and stars, prestige subject, and impressive crafts on display recognized by nearly every branch of the Academy. I think it’s locked and loaded for eight wins from its thirteen nominations, though between seven and ten is possible depending on how the night goes.
In other categories, there’s the usual mix of sure-things (the United Kingdom will win its first International Feature Oscar for Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest), close contests (which “Stone” takes Best Actress: Emma or Lily Glad-?), and wide-open races (Visual Effects could go any number of ways). Despite the impending Oppenheimer steamroll, it looks very possible that almost all of the pretty excellent lineup of Best Picture nominees will walk away with a statue (sorry, Past Lives - I love you!), so I’m looking forward to a lot of worthy artists getting some recognition.
Settle in, mix yourself a cocktail or two (in lieu of our traditional Oscar Menu, we’ll be downing dirty gin martinis all evening), make sure you have enough hot dogs (that’s a May December reference, btw), and follow along with my predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Matt’s Prediction: Oppenheimer
Alternate: lol
The season-long Oppenheimer sweep has been the most formidably dominant frontrunner we’ve seen probably since 2012’s Argo, but even that movie faced some stumbling blocks on its path to victory. Despite some nominees that may’ve made worthy winners in other years among this grouping of ten, Oppy’s run has been a Schindler’s List, Titanic, or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King level foregone conclusion for months. And I, like seemingly most of the world, am not complaining! After wins with the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and SAG (among many others), the Oscar will be the cherry on top for Christopher Nolan’s latest.
Matt’s Personal Rankings: 1) Killers of the Flower Moon, 2) Past Lives, 3) Oppenheimer, 4) The Zone of Interest, 5) Anatomy of a Fall, 6) Poor Things, 7) The Holdovers, 8) Barbie, 9) Maestro, 10) American Fiction
Should’ve Been Nominated: May December, Asteroid City
BEST DIRECTOR
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Matt’s Prediction: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Alternate: pigs fly
A truly fantastic lineup, though this one is all sewn up for Nolan.
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Todd Haynes (May December)
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Matt’s Prediction: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Alternate: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
With a Golden Globe win (for Actor in a Comedy/Musical) and a semi-surprise victory at the Critics Choice Awards, it briefly looked like beloved (and under-rewarded) industry vet Paul Giamatti was going to ride a wave of support all the way to the podium - especially given the immense goodwill engendered from his still-shocking nomination snub in this category for 2004’s Sideways (I promise it’s not just me!). But really, we never should’ve doubted that Cillian Murphy (himself a much-admired veteran, particularly of Nolan’s films) as the lead in the season’s overwhelming frontrunner and portraying a real-life figure would be the one to beat. The BAFTA was an expected triumph for Murphy, but his recent win with the Screen Actors Guild sealed the deal with my prediction here.
Should Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Matt’s Prediction: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Alternate: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Arguably the only major category this year with much suspense, this is a true toss up! Either Emma Stone wins a second Best Actress Oscar or Lily Gladstone becomes the first Native American actor to win an Oscar. It’s also very possible, depending on how Poor Things fares in a few tech categories, that this is voters’ only chance to award well-respected Best Picture nominees Poor Things (a complete shutout would tie it with 1977’s The Turning Point and 1985’s The Color Purple as the most nominated film to win nothing) or Killers of the Flower Moon (if it loses all ten of its races, it will join previous 0/10 Martin Scorsese pictures Gangs of New York and The Irishman). Both actresses picked up Globes (Gladstone in Drama, Stone in Comedy/Musical), Stone appeared to take a slight edge with Critics Choice and BAFTA wins (where Gladstone wasn’t even a nominee), and then Gladstone won the all-important SAG award a few weeks back right in the middle of the Oscars voting period. I’ll give the ever-so-tiny advantage to Gladstone, but this is a nail-biter.
Should Win: Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Greta Lee (Past Lives)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Matt’s Prediction: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Alternate: none
Iron Man has this in the bag.
Should Win: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Charles Melton (May December)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Matt’s Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Alternate: none
Another category that’s a total done deal, Randolph has been even more dominant all season than even Oppenheimer or Nolan, taking nearly every single regional critics group prize for Supporting Actress alongside every major televised award show trophy. And, like many of this season’s frontrunners, I find it hard to argue against the consensus - congrats in advance, Da’Vine!
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Matt’s Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Alternates: The Holdovers, Past Lives
I’m going to start sounding like a broken record this year, but this is a very solid list of nominees (except you, Maestro - sorry! You have your strengths, but the screenplay and what was chosen to focus on in a film about Leonard Bernstein was not one of them). I’d say The Holdovers might have more of a fighting chance if director Alexander Payne was a credited writer on the script (he’s won two writing Oscars in the past, after all), and Past Lives might’ve been an easy winner in another, less competitive year, but this race seemed to settle on Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall pretty early on. Director Justine Triet and writing/life partner Arthur Harari will add to the Golden Globe and BAFTA already on their mantle, faring better than a certain married duo/writing partners in the next category…
Should Win: Past Lives
Should’ve Been Nominated: Asteroid City
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Matt’s Prediction: American Fiction
Alternates: Oppenheimer, Barbie
Immediately after the nominations were announced and Greta Gerwig was left off the Director list for her work on Barbie, it seemed like there was a lot of momentum for the film that might carryover into voters choosing her and husband/co-writer/previous nominee Noah Baumbach’s screenplay in this category, but tides appear to have shifted. It would make perfect sense for the season’s awards titan Oppenheimer to collect this prize and add to Christopher Nolan’s haul on Oscar night, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility, but American Fiction has completely owned this category in the last few months - even winning the BAFTA in this category when it was the film’s one and only nomination across the pond. Though I guess it makes sense - director and writer Cord Jefferson is an exciting new voice in the industry, the film is passionately admired among many and unlikely to be awarded in another category this year, and it’s about a writer. All ingredients that will narrowly push it over the top.
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should’ve Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Matt’s Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Boy and the Heron
To say Japanese animated master Hayao Miyazaki is beloved the world over is maybe an understatement, though most would agree The Boy and the Heron is not his greatest film (that’s a high bar to clear though!). Initially billed as his swan song (he has since kinda maybe sorta un-retired), the narrative to add a bookend to his win in this category for 2002’s Spirited Away was strong. Heron won the Globe and the BAFTA and stands a good chance of triumphing here, but I’ll stick with the Spider-Verse series collecting its second win after the first won this award in 2019.
Should Win: Robot Dreams
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Matt’s Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Alternate: none
It would be interesting to know how this race might’ve ended up if France had selected Anatomy of a Fall as their country’s submission in this category rather than the un-nominated The Taste of Things. I suspect Anatomy would’ve prevailed over fellow Best Picture nominee The Zone of Interest, but without that matchup at hand, Zone will handily take this (becoming the UK’s first International Feature win).
Should Win: abstain (haven’t seen all five yet, though The Zone of Interest is fantastic)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Matt’s Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Alternates: Four Daughters, The Eternal Memory
Should Win: abstain
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Matt's Prediction: Oppenheimer
Alternate: none
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should’ve Been Nominated: Saltburn
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of a Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Matt’s Prediction: Oppenheimer
Alternate: none
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Zone of Interest
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Matt’s Prediction: Poor Things
Alternate: Barbie
One of the few categories this year causing me stress in prognosticating, even if it’s really only down to two films. Barbie has had almost an entire year’s worth of campaigning for its design elements (an Architectural Digest tour for the Dream House, certainly the most Halloween costumed film of last year, etc), and they’re definitely vibrant and flashy creations (or recreations) that I could see voters getting behind. But Poor Things featured equally eye-popping visuals that were invented from scratch, and I think its status as the more ‘prestige’ film might help it win over the typically snobbish Academy.
Should Win: Poor Things
Should’ve Been Nominated: Asteroid City
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Matt’s Prediction: Poor Things
Alternate: Barbie
The same rationale as in Production Design led me to my Poor Things prediction here, but if these categories were to split between the two, I’d say Barbie, which is prominently about dressing up one’s dolls and the fashions of the iconic toy, gets this prize and Poor Things the other.
Should Win: Poor Things
Should’ve Been Nominated: Priscilla
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Matt’s Prediction: Oppenheimer
Alternate: none
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Zone of Interest
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"The Fire Inside" (Flamin’ Hot)
"I’m Just Ken" (Barbie)
"It Never Went Away" (American Symphony)
"Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" (Killers of the Flower Moon)
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)
Matt’s Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
Alternates: “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
Awards magnets Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell won this category just a few years back for the Bond theme “No Time to Die” and they picked up no less than the Grammy Award for Song of the Year for their ubiquitous Barbie tune “What Was I Made For?” earlier this year. At just 22 and 26 years of age, they’ll become the youngest two-time Oscar winners ever.
Should Win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Dance the Night” (Barbie)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Matt’s Prediction: Maestro
Alternate: Poor Things
Should Win: Maestro
Should’ve Been Nominated: Priscilla
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Matt’s Prediction: Oppenheimer
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should’ve Been Nominated: Society of the Snow
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Matt’s Prediction: The Creator
Alternates: Godzilla Minus One, Napoleon, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Should’ve Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Matt’s Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Alternate: Red, White and Blue
Should Win: Knight of Fortune
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Matt’s Prediction: Letter to a Pig
Alternates: War Is Over!, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform
Should Win: abstain
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po
Matt’s Prediction: The Last Repair Shop
Alternates: Nai Nai & Wai Po, The ABCs of Book Banning
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
The 96th Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC Sunday, March 10th beginning an hour earlier than usual at 7pm ET, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
