Final 2020-2021 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Cut! Print! That’s a wrap! The day has (finally) arrived - Oscar nominations morning!

The 93rd Annual Academy Awards nominations will be revealed on Monday morning by Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Nick Jonas in two segments beginning at 8:19am (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).

The nominations will honor the best in cinema from the past year (plus the first two months of 2021, as the Academy extended their eligibility window to accommodate 2020’s ever-shifting pandemic landscape). Though many major films pushed their releases to later this year or beyond, 2020 still had an adundance of quality films and performances to choose from if you knew where to look. Given the upended distribution patterns, we here at CineMunch still have quite a bit to catch up on before we finalize our picks for best of the year, but can vouch that many of this year’s likely honorees are pretty damn good.

Read on for my final nominations predictions!

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sound of Metal
Judas & the Black Messiah

Alternates: The Father, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Soul, The Mauritanian

The Academy will revert back to a set list of 10 nominees in this category starting next year (yay!), so this is the final year where, depending on the math and how the votes pan out, we could see as few as 5 or as many as 10 films recognized. Since that rule adjustment took effect in 2011, there have only been years of 8 or 9 finalists, so I suspect we’ll get another lineup of 9 - though the films I have listed at #10 (The Father) and #11 (News of the World) could sneak past one of the 9 I have predicted.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Alternates: Regina King (One Night in Miami), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Florian Zeller (The Father)

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)

Alternates: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

BEST ACTRESS

Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)

Alternates: Yeri Han (Minari), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas & the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)

Alternates: Alan Kim (Minari), David Strathairn (Nomadland), Jared Leto (The Little Things)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Olivia Colman (The Father)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

Alternates: Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Helena Zengel (News of the World), Dominique Fishback (Judas & the Black Messiah), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Major bragging rights to anyone who goes 5/5 in this category this year, as it may be the most wide-open acting race I’ve ever covered in my 20+ years of Oscar prognosticating. Any combination of the nine ladies above could hear their names called and not a single one is safe.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Judas & the Black Messiah

Alternates: Sound of Metal, Soul

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World

Alternates: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Mauritanian, The White Tiger, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round (Denmark)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Two of Us (France)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)

Alternates: Collective (Romania), La Llorona (Guatemala), I’m No Longer Here (Mexico), Charlatan (Czech Republic), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Alternates: The Croods: A New Age, Earwig & the Witch, The Willoughbys

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
Collective
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
All In: The Fight for Democracy

Alternates: Dick Johnson is Dead, Boys State, My Octopus Teacher, The Truffle Hunters, 76 Days

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Judas & the Black Messiah
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternates: Tenet, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Cherry, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

BEST FILM EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
Promising Young Woman
Mank

Alternates: Minari, The Father, News of the World, Tenet, Judas & the Black Messiah

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Tenet
Mulan

Alternates: The Midnight Sky, Emma., The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Emma.
Mulan
News of the World

Alternates: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, The Glorias, Judas & the Black Messiah

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul
Mank
News of the World
Minari
The Midnight Sky

Alternates: Tenet, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
”Io Sí (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
”Fight For You” (Judas & the Black Messiah)
”Turntables” (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
”Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)

Alternates: “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “Rain Song” (Minari), “Wuhan Flu” (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Pinocchio
Birds of Prey (& the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Emma.

Alternates: Mank, The Glorias, The Little Things, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, One Night in Miami

BEST SOUND

Sound of Metal
News of the World
Greyhound
Mank
Soul

Alternates: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Tenet, The Midnight Sky

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Welcome to Chechnya
The One and Only Ivan
Soul

Alternates: Mank, Mulan, Love & Monsters, Bloodshot, Birds of Prey

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The Letter Room
The Human Voice
Two Distant Strangers
Feeling Through
The Present

Alternates: White Eye, Da Yie, The Kicksled Choir, Bittu, The Van

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

If Anything Happens I Love You
Kapaemahu
Opera
The Snail & the Whale
Out

Alternates: Burrow, Genius Loci, Yes-People, To Gerard, Traces

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

A Love Song for Latasha
Hunger Ward
The Speed Cubers
A Concerto is a Conversation
Colette

Alternates: Abortion Helpline This Is Lisa, Do Not Split, Call Center Blues, What Would Sophia Loren Do?, Hysterical Girl