Final 91st Oscars Predictions
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Last year's acting winners. Who will take home a trophy this year?
The countdown clock approaches zero to the 91st annual Academy Awards; tonight is finally the night! Here at CineMunch we've ranked our favorite films of 2018 and we know what’s on tonight’s Oscar Menu, so it's time to double down on some final predictions.
Last year I wrote about how insane the year’s Best Picture race was—with The Shape of Water taking home the gold in a crowded field, as I did ultimately predict. The year before that seemed like an assured La La Land victory (and we know how that turned out!); while the year before that was a heated three-way race that saw Spotlight narrowly squeak out a win.
This year looks to add to the crazy, as a number of different scenarios could plausibly play out in many categories, namely Best Picture. Critical fave Roma hopes to become the first ever foreign language film to take the top prize, while box-office behemoth Black Panther hopes to make history for Marvel and superhero movies. Voters might’ve been swayed by the regressive, but comforting, Green Book, or perhaps nominations co-leader The Favourite is their favorite (sorry, had to). Each of the eight films nominated for Best Picture looks likely to take home at least one little gold statue, so it might be a spread-the-wealth type of Oscar year. We’ll know soon enough, though, and I for one can’t wait to find out what’s inside all 24 envelopes—provided they have the right envelope (sorry, had to)!
So settle in, mix yourself a cocktail (we'll be starting with Queen Anne’s Bitches’ Brew with Emma Stonefruit in honor of The Favourite), and follow along with our predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Matt’s Prediction: Roma
Alternates: Green Book, Black Panther
I agree with most Oscar nerds that this once wide-open race has oddly boiled down to Roma vs. Green Book. And looking at the usual precursor awards that typically signal a Best Picture victory won’t give you any confidence in prognosticating this year, as things have been all over the map. The main industry awards were divided among the lot, with victories for Black Panther (SAG), Green Book (PGA & Globe), Roma (DGA & BAFTA), Bohemian Rhapsody (ACE & Globe), and The Favourite (ACE). On top of all that, the films with the best stats this season were A Star is Born (nabbing nominations from all but one of the various guilds, possibly indicating the broad support needed to win on a preferential ballot like this one) and BlacKkKlansman (which has all the requisite nominations statistically ‘needed’ to claim Best Picture). And then the Writers Guild, one of the last industry honors before tonight, went and gave their top prizes to two films not even nominated for Best Picture (Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me?)! So that leaves me confident in ruling out only Vice from this group. In the end, I think the film that will prove least divisive is the black and white foreign film, so I’m not-so-confidently-but-optimistically putting my chips on Roma, a historic win for world cinema…and Netflix.
Should Win: Roma
Should’ve Been Nominated: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Nathan’s Prediction: Roma
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Matt’s Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Alternate: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Cuarón won this category just a few years ago for Gravity and is almost assured to nab a second with the technical and personal achievement of Roma. Rather shockingly, this is Spike Lee’s first ever nomination in this category, and, while many voters are aware of his overdue status, he did just receive an honorary Oscar last year and is very likely to pick up some hardware for BlacKkKlansman’s screenplay this year. But if there’s anyone who can stop the Cuarón Express, it’s Spike.
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Chloe Zhao (The Rider)
Nathan’s Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Matt’s Prediction: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Alternates: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
What once seemed like the ideal place to award four-time acting nominee Cooper a first Oscar for all he did to make A Star is Born a success (not to mention his best onscreen performance, in my opinion), ultimately narrowed to voters’ favorite form of “acting”: biopic mimicry. Though Christian Bale picked up some hardware early on for his Dick Cheney in the divisive Vice, this race appears all over for everyone except Globe and BAFTA winner Malek and his distracting fake teeth as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Should Win: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
Nathan’s Prediction: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Matt’s Prediction: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Alternate: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
This nomination moves Glenn Close into first place for most-nominated living actor to never have won an Oscar. She’s likely to finally prevail this time around (on her seventh nomination), though BAFTA winner Olivia Colman won’t make Glenn’s coronation a cakewalk.
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Nathan’s Prediction: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Matt’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Alternate: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
While there is hope for a Richard E. Grant upset (he’s been charming the circuit all season long and is an under-rewarded veteran character actor), Mahershala Ali looks locked and loaded to win this category for the second time in three years after winning for Moonlight in 2017.
Should Win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Josh Hamilton (Eighth Grade)
Nathan’s Prediction: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Matt’s Prediction: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alternate: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
While Regina King is certainly the agreed upon frontrunner, the only three major prizes she’s claimed this season were voted on by awards bodies that have no overlap with AMPAS, while SAG and BAFTA (two groups that do have major overlap with the Academy’s acting branch) didn’t even nominate her. I still think she’s headed for a first Oscar, though BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz, or even surprise nominee Marina de Tavira, might be poised for an upset.
Should Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Sakura Ando (Shoplifters)
Nathan’s Prediction: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Matt’s Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Eighth Grade
Nathan’s Prediction: Green Book
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Matt’s Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Alternates: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk
While this looks like the perfect category to award Spike Lee his first competitive Oscar, WGA champ Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Indie Spirits Best Picture winner If Beale Street Could Talk are right behind.
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should’ve Been Nominated: Annihilation
Nathan’s Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Matt’s Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Incredibles 2
Spider-Verse seems like a lock, though never underestimate the power of Disney/Pixar…
Should Win: Isle of Dogs
Nathan’s Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Matt’s Prediction: Roma
Alternate: Cold War
It's possible that voters are checking off Roma in so many other categories (including Best Picture), that they might wish to champion another film from this strong lineup - most likely three-time nominee Cold War. But I’d still bet the farm on Roma being Mexico’s first win in this category.
Should Win: Roma
Nathan’s Prediction: Roma
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers & Sons
RBG
Matt’s Prediction: Free Solo
Alternate: RBG
As is usual of late, this field is full of quality films, though the most widely seen of the bunch are your frontrunners: the exhilarating Free Solo vs. the heroic and timely RBG. I’m opting for the adventurous Nat Geo doc over the more traditional biodoc, but it could be either one.
Should Win: Free Solo
Nathan’s Prediction: Minding the Gap
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born
Matt's Prediciton: Roma
Alternate: none?
By the end of the night, viewers will likely tire of hearing Alfonso Cuarón give speeches, but he’s definitely the safe bet to be the first director to win this award for lensing his own film.
Should Win: Roma
Should’ve Been Nominated: First Man
Nathan’s Prediction: Roma
BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Matt’s Prediction: Vice
Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody, BlacKkKlansman
Editing is unquestionably one of the hardest to suss out this year. Roma, First Man, A Star is Born, or Black Panther might’ve been good bets to take this, but then none were even nominated! BAFTA winner Vice probably wins for Most Editing so I’ll stick with it in the end, but Bohemian Rhapsody has just as solid a chance. I’m solidly rooting for neither, and hope BlacKkKlansman or The Favourite can surprise.
Should Win: The Favourite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Roma
Nathan’s Prediction: Vice
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Matt’s Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Black Panther
Both design categories seem like a toss-up between Black Panther and The Favourite. Voters might go all-in on the Marvel epic like they did a few years back with stylized genre flick Mad Max: Fury Road, but I tend to assume most voters will lazily select the big, British period piece in these design fields - though The Favourite will be a very worthy winner.
Should Win: The Favourite
Nathan’s Prediction: Black Panther
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Matt’s Prediction: The Favourite
Alternate: Black Panther
Ruth E. Carter is hoping to hear her name called for the first time (with a win for Black Panther), though I suspect Sandy Powell will hear her name called for the fourth time when The Favourite wins here by a very slim margin.
Should Win: Black Panther
Nathan’s Prediction: The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Matt’s Prediction: Black Panther
Alternates: BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alongside Editing, this is the category giving me the most anxiety this year. Though Beale Street appears to have an edge and Mary Poppins is the most music-heavy from this lineup, I always think it’s safest to go with a Best Picture nominee. As I have Black Panther losing in all its other races, I’ll go with it here just barely over BlacKkKlansman.
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should’ve Been Nominated: First Man
Nathan’s Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"I’ll Fight" (RBG)
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"Shallow" (A Star is Born)
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Matt’s Prediction: “Shallow” (A Star is Born)
Alternate: none
One of the biggest locks of the night.
Should Win: “Shallow” (A Star is Born)
Nathan’s Prediction: “Shallow” (A Star is Born)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Matt’s Prediction: Vice
Alternate: none
A lock? I should think so.
Should Win: Vice
Should’ve Been Nominated: Suspiria
Nathan’s Prediction: Vice
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Matt’s Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternates: A Star is Born, Black Panther
Musicals tend to do well in this category, and although all of A Star is Born’s stage performances were recorded live, it appears set to lose to the inferior, but bizarrely well-loved, Bohemian Rhapsody.
Should Win: A Star is Born
Nathan’s Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Matt’s Prediction: A Quiet Place
Alternates: First Man, Black Panther
Most voters don’t even know the difference in these two sound awards (Sound Editing is the creation of sounds from scratch, while Mixing is the overall balancing of all sounds, dialogue, and music), but A Quiet Place features sound so prominently that I’d bet there will be many Academy members who select it here.
Should Win: First Man
Nathan’s Prediction: A Quiet Place
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Matt’s Prediction: First Man
Alternates: Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One
As the only film in this field with nominations in other categories, I think First Man has the edge, though it’s also the least effects-driven film of the bunch.
Should Win: First Man
Should’ve Been Nominated: Annihilation
Nathan’s Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Matt’s Prediction: Marguerite
Alternates: Skin, Mother, Fauve, Detainment
And here is where Oscar prediction contests are won or lost. Watching most of the nominated short films in years past didn’t help my predictions one bit (I got all three wrong last year), so I opted to skip them this year. I’m glad I did, too, as four of the five from this crop deal with murdered children or kids in peril. Because of that, I’ll predict the one short that doesn’t deal with harrowing subject matter: Marguerite.
Nathan’s Prediction: Skin
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Matt’s Prediction: Bao
Alternates: Weekends, Late Afternoon
Pixar doesn’t win this category as often as one would think, but I think they have the edge this year with the delightfully odd Bao.
Nathan’s Prediction: Bao
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Matt’s Prediction: Period. End of Sentence.
Alternates: Black Sheep, End Game
Nathan’s Prediction: Period. End of Sentence.
The 91st Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC beginning at 8pm ET with no master of ceremonies for the first time in decades.
