Final 2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions


Hallelujah! Christmas morning* has finally arrived!

*Christmas morning = Oscar nominations morning, obviously, as we anxiously await to see who Santa (AKA the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences) gifted with a shot at a shiny trophy and who gets coal in their stocking.

The 90th Annual Academy Awards nominations will be announced Tuesday morning in two segments, one at 8:22am ET and the other at the precise time of 8:38:30am ET (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).

2017 was a real roller coaster (in all regards), but what started as a truly dreadful year in film ended on a positive note with a lot of quality films released in the last few months of the year. Here at CineMunch we will be rooting hard for Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, and Lady Bird, and very much NOT rooting for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (though expect to hear all of those films called out multiple times). I didn't take too many risks with my predictions, though this definitely feels like a year in which Oscar could throw us some major curveballs. And I, for one, am excited to find out!

Read on for my final nominations predictions.

The titles of each category link to that field's specific page with further commentary and photos.


The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Get Out
Call Me by Your Name
The Post
The Big Sick

Alternates: The Florida Project; I, Tonya; Darkest Hour; Phantom Thread; Mudbound

As has been the case since 2011, there can be as few as five Best Picture nominees or as many as ten (depending on how the votes pan out). Since the change, we've only ever had a lineup consisting of eight or nine films, though I'm only confident in the first seven listed above.


Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Alternates: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name), Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Steven Spielberg (The Post), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Dee Rees (Mudbound)

Lots of narratives in play in this category. Del Toro is hoping to be the third of the "Three Amigos" to take home an Oscar for Best Director (after Alfonso Cuaron and Alejandro G. Inarritu beat him to it), while poor Christopher Nolan is just looking for a first nomination in this category after several near misses (Dunkirk should do the trick for him this year). Beyond those two likely nominees, it gets tough to suss out who this branch might spring for. I went with the other three films that have the most Best Picture heat, but truly any of the directors listed as alternates make more sense as Director nominees (whereas Peele, Gerwig, and McDonagh may be seen as writers first, and directors second with this finicky group).


Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Alternates: Tom Hanks (The Post), Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)


Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Alternates: Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game), Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)

Though 2017 was a year filled with strong female performances and characters, this race seemed to settle into these five early on. Though Streep somehow missed with both SAG and BAFTA (who usually love her as much as Oscar) is odd, I still fully expect her to receive her 21st nomination.


Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Alternates: Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)


Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

Alternates: Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Hong Chau (Downsizing), Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

This is the most exciting acting category this year. Beyond Janney and Metcalf, it's really anyone's guess as to who will fill out the field.


Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Big Sick
The Shape of Water

Alternates: I, Tonya; The Post; Phantom Thread

Similarly to Supporting Actress, this category is highly competitive. Any of the alternates listed could sneak in - though Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards are secure.


Call Me by Your Name
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist

Wonder Woman

Alternate: Wonder, Logan, The Lost City of Z, Victoria & Abdul

All other final predictions can be found on the separate category field pages linked below.

(Foreign Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Short Films)

(Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects)

(Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)