Final 92nd Oscars Predictions
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Last year's acting winners. Who will take home a trophy this year?
And just like that, it’s time close the book on the cinematic year of 2019 with this evening’s presentation of the 92nd Annual Academy Awards! Here at CineMunch we’ve settled on what we would say is the definitive ranking of 2019's best films (and whaddaya know, one of our faves might just win the top prize, too!), so it's time to double down on some final predictions.
Last year’s race saw the more traditional (*cough* regressive) Green Book triumph over Roma, which was fighting to become the first foreign language film to snag Best Picture at the Oscars. A similar narrative looks set to unfold this year as World War I epic 1917 is your frontrunner, while a critically popular foreign film is nipping at its heels in South Korean phenomenon Parasite - which may have just enough passion within the industry to accomplish what Roma wasn’t able to a year ago.
Beyond 1917 vs Parasite in the top two races, there’s a healthy mix of sure-things (you can go ahead and engrave the statues for all four of this year’s acting winners right now) and wide-open races (particularly Original Song and Animated Feature). Each of this year’s nine Best Picture nominees stands a good chance at bringing home some hardware (except The Irishman - sorry, Marty!), but it will undoubtedly be 1917 walking away with the most trophies. We’re firmly in the Parasite camp over here and are thrilled it’s guaranteed at least one win (in the newly renamed International Film category), but we’re also hoping the shortened awards season results in a few surprises throughout the night.
So settle in, mix yourself a cocktail or four (in lieu of our traditional Oscar Menu, we’ll be feasting on a resplendent cheese plate and sipping cheap wine), and follow along with our predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Matt’s Prediction: 1917
Alternates: Parasite, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit
The complicated math of the preferential ballot in this category, where voters rank all the nominees in order of their preference as opposed to simply selecting a single favorite, allows for the possibility of unexpected results - and likely what helped Moonlight squeak out that shock win over La La Land a few years back. As evidenced by industry chatter and standing ovations at other awards shows this season, it’s clear Parasite has the passionate support needed to be a strong competitor for Best Picture. That said, 1917, a film many love or at least respect and few actively dislike (a necessary combination to win on a preferential ballot) is the one to beat after taking home the top prize at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, PGAs, and DGAs.
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Nathan’s Prediction: Parasite
BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Matt’s Prediction: Sam Mendes (1917)
Alternate: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Though Director Bong could certainly follow in Alfonso Cuarón’s footsteps and take home this prize for a foreign language film for the second year in a row, the technical wow factor of Mendes’ made-to-look-like-it-was-shot-in-a-single-take war film should bring him a bookend Oscar to go with his win for 1999’s American Beauty (cementing him the record for longest stretch between repeat victories in Best Director).
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Celine Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Nathan’s Prediction: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Matt’s Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Alternates: none
Though I’d love to see Adam Driver take this for more nuanced and affecting work, Joaquin Phoenix is one of the biggest locks of the night.
Should Win: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Nathan’s Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Matt’s Prediction: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Alternate: none
Though I’m not sure anyone is truly jazzed by Zellweger’s likely victory, none of her competitors ever emerged as a true challenger this season (Renée swept the precursors, including last night’s Indie Spirit Awards). Cementing her mini-comeback narrative and giving voters a roundabout way of honoring the Oscar-less Judy Garland, she’ll coast to a second Oscar (she previously won Supporting Actress for her scenery chewing in 2003’s Cold Mountain).
Should Win: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
Nathan’s Prediction: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Matt’s Prediction: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Alternate: none
Pitt, the youngest among this group of veterans (at 56 - which, just take a moment while he’s on screen tonight to marvel at the genetics and wealth that allow a human being to look like Brad Pitt does at 56 years of age!), will handily take this category, adding his first acting Oscar to go alongside his win as a producer of 2013’s Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave. In the process, he’ll beat previous Oscar winners from 1990 (Pesci), 1991 (Hopkins), 1992 (Pacino), 1993 (Hanks), and 1994 (Hanks again).
Should Win: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
Nathan’s Prediction: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Matt’s Prediction: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Laura Dern has all the right ingredients for a win here: an industry veteran (this is her third nomination without a win, she serves on the Academy’s Board of Directors, and was almost voted President of the Academy last year), a daughter of Hollywood (her parents are past nominees Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd), and she stars in two of this year’s Best Picture nominees (Little Women being the other). That said, many would agree her work in Marriage Story is not the strongest of her career, and that might just provide enough room for double-nominee Johansson to surge past to the front and upset.
Should Win: Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Nathan’s Prediction: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Matt’s Prediction: Parasite
Alternate: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
While it seemed for a long while that Globe winner Quentin Tarantino would easily take this for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (giving him a third win and tying him with Woody Allen for most victories in this category), it now looks like Parasite is the one to beat. As a true phenomenon and beloved film that’s only really guaranteed one Oscar (in International Feature), I’d expect Parasite to pick up at least one other award and it’s most likely to do so here. Fingers crossed!
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Booksmart, The Farewell
Nathan’s Prediction: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Matt’s Prediction: Jojo Rabbit
Alternates: Little Women
Similarly to the recent shift in Original Screenplay odds, I would’ve put my chips behind Little Women as recently as a week ago, though it now looks like Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit is the most formidable contender among this crop.
Should Win: Little Women
Should’ve Been Nominated: Hustlers
Nathan’s Prediction: Jojo Rabbit
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Matt’s Prediction: Toy Story 4
Alternate: Klaus, I Lost My Body, Missing Link, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I’d safely say Toy Story 4 is the most widely seen of these fives features, and though that gives it a slight edge in my estimation, this category could truly go in any direction. Netflix’s Klaus won at the BAFTAs, Missing Link won the Golden Globe, and no franchise has taken home more than one statue in Animated Feature (the first two Toy Story films predate the existence of the category, though Toy Story 3 won in 2011). They didn’t even nominate Frozen II, so it would reason that sequels are at a disadvantage here, but I can’t confidently say which film that benefits and will hesitantly stick with Woody, Buzz, and the gang.
Should Win: Toy Story 4
Nathan’s Prediction: Missing Link
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Matt’s Prediction: Parasite
Alternate: lol
Parasite will be South Korea’s first win in this category.
Should Win: Parasite
Nathan’s Prediction: Parasite
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Matt’s Prediction: American Factory
Alternate: The Cave, For Sama
Though there will be plenty of support for Syrian docs The Cave and For Sama, I suspect Netflix’s American Factory (the first film under the Obama’s production company) has the edge.
Should Win: abstain
Should’ve Been Nominated: Apollo 11, One Child Nation
Nathan’s Prediction: American Factory
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Matt's Prediciton: 1917
Alternate: none
A lock. Cinematographer Roger Deakins will take home his second Oscar after finally triumphing in 2018 for Blade Runner 2049 (which was his 14th nomination without a win).
Should Win: 1917
Should’ve Been Nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Nathan’s Prediction: 1917
BEST FILM EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite
Matt’s Prediction: Ford v Ferrari
Alternates: The Irishman, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit
As strong Best Picture contenders, Parasite and Jojo Rabbit wouldn’t be too surprising if they spoiled in this race, though I think Martin Scorsese’s longtime editor Thelma Schoonmaker is a strong possibility to win her fourth Oscar (setting the record for most wins in this field) if she can zoom past the flashy work on display in car racing drama Ford v Ferrari.
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve Been Nominated: 1917
Nathan’s Prediction: The Irishman
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Matt’s Prediction: 1917
Alternate: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit
The recreation of 1969 Los Angeles in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood will probably be catnip to many voters who remember the era fondly, but I have a sneaking suspicion BAFTA winner and Best Picture frontrunner 1917 will add to its trophy haul with a win here. The Parasite campaign has done a great job educating voters on just how much work was put into crafting that film’s immaculate sets (both houses were built from scratch just for the film!), though contemporary films always face an uphill battle in the design categories.
Should Win: Parasite
Nathan’s Prediction: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Matt’s Prediction: Little Women
Alternate: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit
Should Win: Little Women
Should’ve Been Nominated: Rocketman, Dolemite is My Name
Nathan’s Prediction: Little Women
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Matt’s Prediction: Joker
Alternates: 1917
1917’s Thomas Newman is hoping to hear his name called for the first time (this is his fifteenth nomination sans a victory), the smart money is on Joker composer Hildur Guønadóttir to add to her recent Grammy and Emmy wins for HBO’s Chernobyl.
Should Win: 1917
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Nathan’s Prediction: 1917
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"I’m Standing With You" (Breakthrough)
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen II)
"Stand Up" (Harriet)
"(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman)
"I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4)
Matt’s Prediction: “Stand Up” (Harriet)
Alternate: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman), “I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough), “Into the Unknown” (Frozen II)
In accepting the Golden Globe for their Rocketman song, Elton John and his longtime collaborator Bernie Taupin let it be known that somehow that was the first award they’d ever won together (how they never won a Grammy in their storied careers together is a mystery for another day). That might give the song a boost, though there is heavy competition. I’m not-so-confidently guessing Best Actress nominee Cynthia Erivo completes her EGOT by winning here, though 11-time nominee Diane Warren hopes her Breakthrough song is finally the one to bring her an Oscar and Frozen II songwriters Robert and Kristen Anderson-Lopez hope to go 3/3 in this category after winning for the original Frozen’s “Let It Go” and Coco’s “Remember Me”.
Should Win: *shrug emoji*
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” (Wild Rose)
Nathan’s Prediction: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Matt’s Prediction: Bombshell
Alternate: Judy, Joker, 1917
Bombshell is certainly the one to beat here, though I’d watch out for Judy if there’s to be an upset.
Should Win: Bombshell
Should’ve Been Nominated: Dolemite is My Name
Nathan’s Prediction: Bombshell
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Matt’s Prediction: 1917
Alternates: Ford v Ferrari, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should’ve Been Nominated: Rocketman
Nathan’s Prediction: 1917
BEST SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Matt’s Prediction: 1917
Alternates: Ford v Ferrari, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Most voters don’t even know the difference between these two sound awards (Sound Editing is the creation of sounds from scratch, while Mixing is the overall balancing of all sounds, dialogue, and music), but war films often do well in both categories.
Should Win: 1917
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Lighthouse
Nathan’s Prediction: 1917
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Matt’s Prediction: 1917
Alternates: The Lion King, Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman
It’s typically wise to select a Best Picture nominee if one is nominated in this field, though the effects work in 1917 might not be as prominently featured as some of its competitors and the de-aging work in The Irishman was a consistent criticism of that otherwise well-regarded film. A win for the “final” installment in the Avengers series might be a nice capstone for Marvel (and they’ve never won in this category) and The Lion King definitely wins for *most* special effects, but I’m sticking with 1917.
Should Win: 1917
Nathan’s Prediction: Avengers: Endgame
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbor’s Window
Saria
A Sister
Matt’s Prediction: The Neighbor’s Window
Alternates: Brotherhood, Nefta Football Club
And here is where Oscar prediction contests are won or lost. Watching most of the nominated short films in years past didn’t help my predictions one bit (I got all three wrong two years ago!), so I again opted to skip them this year.
Nathan’s Prediction: Brotherhood
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
Matt’s Prediction: Hair Love
Alternates: Kitbull, Memorable
Nathan’s Prediction: Hair Love
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Matt’s Prediction: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl)
Alternates: St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha
Nathan’s Prediction: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl)
The 92nd Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC beginning at 8pm ET without a host for the second year in a row.
